Expected ValueEV in Betting: What it means How to use it

Those who understand and apply this principle stand out from casual punters—they become strategic players tuned into exploiting every opportunity where maths tips scales in their favour. When punters dip their toes into the world of sports betting, they’re often introduced to a crucial concept called expected value. In simple terms, expected value is like the crystal ball of betting—it gives them a sneak peek into the potential profitability of a bet over time. It’s a bit like figuring out whether it’s worth buying that extra lottery ticket. Incorporating EV into your betting strategies, tracking and analyzing results, and exploring niche markets can further enhance your betting prowess.

Step-by-Step Example of How to Calculate EV in Betting

A positive expected value (+EV) indicates a potentially profitable bet, while a negative expected value (-EV) suggests a bet that is likely to result in a loss over time. Value betting is when a player receives better odds than they should on the outcome of an event. For example, a coin flip always has a 50% chance of landing on heads or tails. The true odds on each side should be even money, or +100 (bet $100 to win $100).

Focus on long-term profitability

• When you consistently choose options with positive expected value, you’ll make more money than you lose over time.
• In simple terms, expected value is like the crystal ball of betting—it gives them a sneak peek into the potential profitability of a bet over time.
• They noticed an underrated team showing consistent performance against top-tier teams despite being labelled as underdogs.
• Having a positive expected value does not guarantee making money, as losses can still occur due to the influence of luck in sports betting.
• In this case, you would add the last two numbers of the two lines together.
• You would expect to profit in the long run by betting on that underdog.

Ultimately it’s up to your risk tolerance as a sports bettor to determine your market width target. Sometimes sportsbooks can have different lines for the same bet making finding a 0-vig line a little less clear. I like to use a consensus approach looking at everyone’s roobet lines, but ultimately factoring in sharper books that show tighter markets with higher max bets more heavily. Betting sites generally aim to limit their own risk on any given game or event by trying to encourage balanced betting action on both sides. Too much action on one side could leave the sportsbook vulnerable to a big financial loss if that side wins.

Build your bankroll by placing smaller, smart wagers with a positive EV. Knowing how to manage a bankroll is another crucial component of sports betting. Some may be surprised to find there is no true rule to managing a sports betting bankroll. Many experts disagree on the best system, yet there are some helpful tips that all bettors can use to better protect their funds. Sportsbooks set the vig (also known as juice) for every wager being offered. This can be described as acommission that sportsbooks charge bettors for each wager.

Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up Approaches in NFL Betting: +EV Betting Strategy 101

Many people think you need to win more bets than you lose to make money in sports betting. In Super Bowl LIII, for example, New England Patriot fans flooded Rhode Island sportsbooks with bets on their favorite team. The caveat here is that betting on +900 underdogs often comes with heavy vig (longer odds tend to have wider markets) and that can cut into the bonus bet conversion. Not to mention in cases of large bonus bets, people may want to win more than 5-10% of the time. It takes a lot of hard work to become an expert in a category, always think in probabilities, and find good value betting opportunities. That said, you now have the knowledge and the tools necessary to find positive expected value in betting.

At its simplest, expected value in sports betting is a way to measure the probability gap between a bettor’s expectations – and the sportsbook’s. Unlike with Matched Betting sports offers, you’ll not be laying off bets when doing casino offers. There is no ”casino betting exchange” when doing casino offers. Rather than a steady, continuous profit over time, your profit over time graph for expected value offers will be similar to the casino offers strategy by only doing +EV bets and offers. And if we did it again we might get tails more often than heads.

You can place ten +EV bets in a row and lose every one of them. Maybe a star player is rumored to be injured but hasn’t been officially ruled out yet, and the line hasn’t adjusted. That’s a +EV bet because, on average, it returns a profit of $20 for every $100 wagered.